Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1674…e636 crypto 676 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$754 (-1%) realized −$754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%621W / 55L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$869
other 15% +$8
sports 6% +$84
politics 2% +$22
world 1% −$14
finance 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 249 -3.1% -12.3% 92% 4% -12.2%
all 676 -2.6% -11.9% 92% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -10.6%
10% -20.3% 1% -19.2%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$42 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses621 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)676 / 676
History coverage230d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 676 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 21 $233 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 20 $228 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $226 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $222 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $219 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 20 $217 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 20 $215 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 20 $224 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $224 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 98¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 77¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $0 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 93¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 79¢ $1 26h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 99¢ $100 27h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 99¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 99¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 99¢ $1 27h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 99¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 98¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2027 history records