Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x1675…5881 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$311 (+28%) realized +$313 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$43
sports 43% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 67% +24.4%
≤30d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 67% +24.4%
≤90d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 67% +24.4%
all 6 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 67% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 67% +24.4%
10% -14.0% 67% +12.5%
15% -22.3% 33% +1.6%
20% -29.9% 33% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$65 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $391 $390 −$1 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $53 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 +$18 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $208 +$252 +121%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $136 +$73 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $109 +$27 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 40¢ $72 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $72 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $387 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $60 40h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 88¢ $460 40h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $208 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $209 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $136 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $136 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $109 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.36 · official $442.36 (match) · 21 history records