Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1678…04f0 other 259 markets active 5h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 252L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 25% −$23
economics 7% −$7
politics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage139d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $216 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $671 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $886 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $462 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $188 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $304 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $406 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $637 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $321 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $587 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 5h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 8h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 10h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 18h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 20h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 25h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 27h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 31h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 33h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 34h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 35h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 37h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 47h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records