Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1679…5d01 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$9
other 24% $0
politics 13% −$1
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 7 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 14% -11.7%
all 49 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -10.8%
10% -18.4% 2% -19.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage260d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $43 −$6 -13%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $22 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $25 −$8 -31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $101 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025? Oct 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 11 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 32h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $25 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 53¢ $14 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 53¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 53¢ $23 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $43 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $23 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 85¢ $22 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $17 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records