Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x167a…91d5
politics · 458 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,223 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,681 · open −$451
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,633
Realized−$5,681
Unrealized−$451
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses16 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions20
Markets (closed)442 / 458
History coverage23d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day148.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 20 History 442 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,022
7 days−$3,828
14 days−$4,554
30 days−$5,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 91¢ $1,508 $1,449 −$60 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $1,171 $1,140 −$31 (-3%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $765 $748 −$17 (-2%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 87¢ 83¢ $686 $660 −$26 (-4%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $633 $600 −$34 (-5%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $582 $572 −$10 (-2%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $588 $570 −$18 (-3%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 74¢ $607 $562 −$45 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $413 $399 −$14 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 54¢ $275 $216 −$59 (-21%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 31¢ 26¢ $198 $165 −$33 (-17%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 86¢ $163 $157 −$5 (-3%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? No 85¢ 80¢ $116 $110 −$6 (-5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $116 $109 −$7 (-6%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 69¢ 38¢ $131 $73 −$59 (-45%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 55¢ 42¢ $65 $49 −$16 (-25%)
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 88¢ 74¢ $44 $37 −$7 (-16%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 47¢ 42¢ $17 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 95¢ 0¢ $2,088 $0 −$2,088 (-100%)
Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $2.0B in Q3? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ebola emergency by June 30? No 92¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? No 91¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,088 −$2,108 -101%
Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $2.0B in Q3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ebola emergency by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$8 -113%
Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -102%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par Jun 12 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 12 $93 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$18 -26%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $412 −$12 -3%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 12 $1,467 −$9 -1%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-02 House seat? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $546 −$15 -3%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 12 $1,251 −$16 -1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $652 −$36 -6%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $1,304 −$46 -4%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $353 −$2 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $418 −$8 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,808 −$91 -5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 12 $147 −$2 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $534 −$18 -3%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $125 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 12 $688 −$8 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 12 $728 −$8 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,995 −$73 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $354 −$11 -3%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $372 −$18 -5%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 11 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$3 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $528 −$8 -2%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 11 $385 −$18 -5%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Jun 11 $72 −$4 -6%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 11 $79 −$1 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-02 House seat? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $579 −$14 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 11 $280 −$10 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $1,075 −$13 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-04 House seat? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French preside Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$1,627
world 24% −$847
other 21% −$1,125
tech 6% −$205
economics 3% −$110
finance 2% −$50
sports 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 3m
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 3m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 41m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 42m
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $78 2h
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $80 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $3 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -5.0% -14.0% 3% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 442 -7.6% -16.4% 4% 1% -13.5%
≤90d 442 -7.6% -16.4% 4% 1% -13.5%
all 442 -7.6% -16.4% 4% 1% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover148.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 1% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 0% -21.8%
15% -31.7% 0% -29.3%
20% -38.4% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,633.42 · official $7,636.36 (match) · 3500 history records