Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x167e…ee43 weather 810 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$282 (+5%) realized +$360 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%428W / 380L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$33
14 days+$89
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$137
sports 0% +$1
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -25.4% -32.5% 50% 14% -12.3%
≤30d 221 +14.0% +3.1% 43% 33% -4.8%
≤90d 780 +13.1% +2.3% 53% 32% -5.8%
all 808 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 32% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 32% -6.0%
10% -8.0% 21% -15.0%
15% -16.9% 18% -23.2%
20% -25.0% 15% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses428 / 380
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)808 / 810
History coverage101d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Yes 84¢ 39¢ $156 $73 −$83 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Yes 45¢ 97¢ $4 $10 +$5 (+116%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $156 +$29 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $82 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $122 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$16 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$8 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$13 +473%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $123 +$36 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 −$31 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $61 44m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 45m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 80¢ $84 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $36 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.26 · official $82.26 (match) · 2205 history records