Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 6 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,795
7 days−$1,710
14 days+$373
30 days−$4,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35,465 $34,656 −$809 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28,355 $28,524 +$169 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $26,204 $26,629 +$425 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26,679 $25,309 −$1,370 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $15,190 $17,272 +$2,082 (+14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $2,833 −$166 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 1? Yes $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 30¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 37¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 68¢ $1,783 $0 −$1,783 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Yes 73¢ $396 $0 −$396 (-100%)
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? No 34¢ $3,832 $0 −$3,832 (-100%)
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? No 24¢ $2,400 $0 −$2,400 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $180 November 3-9? Yes $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 36¢ $5,515 $0 −$5,515 (-100%)
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? No 14¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Yes $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 26? No 25¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Yes 42¢ $11,810 $0 −$11,810 (-100%)
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? No 14¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November? No 10¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 10? No 38¢ $5,700 $0 −$5,700 (-100%)
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? No 12¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Hornets Hornets $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? No 67¢ $4,024 $0 −$4,024 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$449 +148%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 +$69 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$126 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 10 $5,000 −$2,440 -49%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $6,400 +$86 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6,700 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,251 +$578 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10,906 +$1,472 +14%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 29 $160 +$33 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $37,094 −$4,523 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $50 +$18 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 02 $43 −$17 -40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $18,722 +$4,840 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $5,995 +$3,938 +66%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $13,028 −$1,271 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $21,067 +$5,194 +25%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 08 $1,000 +$219 +22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $1,000 +$32 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 06 $15,529 +$1,508 +10%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 05 $3,000 −$196 -6%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $1,000 +$299 +30%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $5,000 +$522 +10%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $6,240 +$836 +13%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $1,000 +$632 +63%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Mar 18 $3,088 −$3,088 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 10? Mar 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $3,311 −$3,311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 09 $10,050 +$562 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 13 $6,000 +$1,316 +22%
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 13 $21,151 +$2,253 +11%
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $8,832 −$3,832 -43%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $5,515 −$5,515 -100%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 16 $8,900 +$900 +10%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $11,042 +$2,794 +25%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $8,200 −$745 -9%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 10 $16 −$2 -15%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $10,000 +$3,099 +31%
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $22,000 +$1,894 +9%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $4,024 −$4,024 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 31 $10,600 +$7,312 +69%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 24 $6,012 +$1,503 +25%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 22 $7,968 +$2,247 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$22,368
world 24% +$9,594
crypto 9% −$3,420
sports 7% +$9,776
economics 1% −$2,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $115 4m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 9m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $560 12m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 12m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 12m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 13m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 15m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 16m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 16m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 17m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 18m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 20m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 20m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 22m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +27.5% +15.4% 67% 50% -17.7%
≤30d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 70% 60% -14.9%
≤90d 26 +10.1% -0.4% 69% 54% -4.6%
all 80 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 44% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 44% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 32% -10.5%
15% -10.8% 20% -19.1%
20% -19.5% 18% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135,224.43 · official $135,224.43 (match) · 1087 history records