Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1682…26ca world 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,659 (+16%) realized +$15,160 · open +$499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%78W / 94L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days+$399
14 days−$1,589
30 days+$4,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$704
politics 19% −$436
other 9% +$1,645
crypto 8% +$8,039
tech 4% −$1,687
sports 4% +$2,356
finance 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.3% -14.4% 43% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 86 -20.3% -27.9% 35% 28% +11.0%
≤90d 165 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 33% +7.6%
all 172 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 35% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 35% +7.7%
10% -18.5% 30% -2.6%
15% -26.4% 26% -12.0%
20% -33.6% 22% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$154 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$25,895
Realized+$15,160
Unrealized+$499
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses78 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions35
Markets (closed)172 / 207
History coverage116d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 67¢ 95¢ $9,704 $13,790 +$4,086 (+42%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $2,379 $2,732 +$353 (+15%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $618 $1,897 +$1,279 (+207%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $1,076 $1,091 +$15 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $1,252 $974 −$278 (-22%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $2,330 $942 −$1,388 (-60%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $958 $845 −$113 (-12%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $713 $702 −$11 (-2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 69¢ 70¢ $649 $663 +$14 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2,464 $409 −$2,055 (-83%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 23¢ $144 $346 +$202 (+140%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $340 $343 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 8¢ $1,028 $297 −$731 (-71%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $176 $245 +$69 (+39%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $397 $165 −$232 (-59%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $90 $115 +$25 (+28%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 9¢ 11¢ $55 $67 +$12 (+22%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $64 $28 −$37 (-57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-12%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $36 $24 −$12 (-33%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-37%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-44%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $126 $12 −$115 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,129 +$557 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $546 −$360 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $930 +$56 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,385 +$236 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $961 −$604 -63%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $33 +$290 +879%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,080 +$50 +5%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $46 +$9 +19%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $608 −$432 -71%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $478 −$473 -99%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$23 +104%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $6,507 +$983 +15%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$16 +71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $27 −$27 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $188 +$112 +60%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $49 +$51 +104%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $239 +$217 +91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $110 −$108 -98%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $403 +$32 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,444 −$2,236 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $47 +$38 +82%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 07 $736 +$225 +30%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Jun 04 $89 +$6 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,744 +$7,593 +277%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $520 +$315 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $560 +$430 +77%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$37 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $252 +$46 +18%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $516 +$49 +10%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange May 29 $134 −$129 -97%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele May 29 $165 −$160 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $76 −$73 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $460 +$211 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $200 −$10 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,321 −$778 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $37 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $139 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $162 11h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $167 11h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 11h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 11h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,986 13h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $649 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $80 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,442 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $134 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $189 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $257 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $155 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $295 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $192 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $775 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $780 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $161 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,894.51 · official $25,894.61 (match) · 1375 history records