Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1683…e4ab other 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-1%) realized −$134 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%170W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$93
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$191
other 25% +$142
crypto 16% −$120
world 1% +$41
finance 0% −$20
weather 0% −$10
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +7.3% -2.9% 39% 37% -13.4%
≤30d 108 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 40% -5.5%
≤90d 412 -10.6% -19.1% 37% 36% -11.4%
all 445 -6.8% -15.7% 38% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -10.6%
10% -23.7% 38% -19.1%
15% -31.1% 37% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 34% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$22 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses170 / 275
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions13
Markets (closed)445 / 463
History coverage202d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 71¢ 70¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 64¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? No 47¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Ligue 1 next? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $25 +$16 +65%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $25 +$27 +105%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $25 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 +$19 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $37 +$21 +57%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $25 −$16 -63%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$27 +105%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$39 +152%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$21 +414%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$16 +65%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$22 +86%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 8.5 Corners AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 +$29 +76%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$31 +596%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $25 +$16 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $38 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $25 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $38 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $38 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $25 15h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 7¢ $5 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 15h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 65¢ $27 16h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $25 18h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $25 18h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $37 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $9 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $25 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.39 · official $220.39 (match) · 985 history records