Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x1683…3cc1 crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$874 (+15%) realized +$881 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$700
7 days+$730
14 days+$730
30 days+$730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$378
other 32% +$142
sports 16% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 48% +2.7%
≤30d 62 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 48% +2.2%
≤90d 62 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 48% +2.2%
all 62 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 48% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 48% +2.2%
10% -24.8% 48% -7.6%
15% -32.1% 40% -16.5%
20% -38.8% 29% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$51 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$881
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage11d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 61¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 44¢ 38¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$35 -66%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $115 −$102 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$34 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$47 +68%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $35 +$32 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$44 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $203 −$174 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $144 +$37 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $132 +$52 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $90 −$50 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $94 −$21 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$19 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $223 +$89 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$40 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$96 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$15 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $124 +$57 +46%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $75 −$60 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $185 +$130 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $156 +$125 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $91 +$48 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$54 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $95 +$23 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $79 +$44 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $351 +$416 +118%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $74 −$9 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 22 $27 −$4 -15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $71 +$68 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $54 −$41 -76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $79 +$46 +58%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $105 +$38 +36%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $105 +$61 +58%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $155 +$48 +31%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $179 +$112 +63%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 15m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 10¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 55m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 80¢ $21 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 75¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $32 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 70¢ $31 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 70¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.69 · official $148.67 (match) · 216 history records