Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1683…3992 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$154 (-9%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$95
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$45
sports 18% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.1% -0.4% 80% 70% -3.8%
≤30d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 61% -13.6%
≤90d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 61% -13.6%
all 23 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 61% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 61% -13.6%
10% -21.7% 30% -21.8%
15% -29.2% 26% -29.4%
20% -36.2% 22% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$71 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage13d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$16 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$21 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$20 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$33 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$32 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$42 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$140 +137%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 −$51 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $241 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 41¢ $102 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $41 8d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $31 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 12¢ $9 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 27¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records