Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1685…6de4 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,821 (-14%) realized −$10,524 · open −$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$4,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,256
7 days−$14,101
14 days−$14,060
30 days−$14,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$11,766
sports 37% −$2,590
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -20.5% -28.0% 55% 42% -26.9%
≤30d 43 -17.4% -25.3% 56% 44% -26.8%
≤90d 43 -17.4% -25.3% 56% 44% -26.8%
all 43 -17.4% -25.3% 56% 44% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 44% -26.8%
10% -32.4% 35% -33.8%
15% ← realistic here -39.0% 21% -40.2%
20% -44.9% 16% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$3,564) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$485 vs −$1,352 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4,038
Realized−$10,524
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions48
Markets (closed)43 / 91
History coverage7d
Avg bet$856
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1,200 $1,186 −$14 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $850 $843 −$7 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $550 $544 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 65¢ 35¢ $310 $168 −$142 (-46%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $140 $125 −$15 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $120 $94 −$26 (-22%)
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 67¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 41¢ 31¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-28%)
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 82¢ 79¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $766 −$192 -25%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5,288 +$1,855 +35%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,766 −$2,766 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,068 −$2,026 -66%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,651 −$3,651 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,006 +$243 +24%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $86 +$53 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,526 −$2,526 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,531 +$1,307 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,617 +$605 +13%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,564 −$2,714 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,021 +$787 +16%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $301 −$301 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,534 +$1,375 +25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,051 +$2,856 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,008 +$287 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,010 +$397 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,041 −$2,041 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,069 +$224 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,013 +$614 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $106 +$47 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $352 +$102 +29%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,007 −$4,007 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,012 +$582 +19%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $138 +$142 +103%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$8 +51%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +177%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $559 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $355 43m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $860 44m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,221 49m
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 71¢ $141 1h
Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,142 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,526 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $82 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $165 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $57 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $114 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $228 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $610 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $277 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,227 5h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $762 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $512 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,841 7h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,255 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,249 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 10h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $459 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $358 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,037.68 · official $4,037.68 (match) · 190 history records