Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

16 0x1685…cb4e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$5,498 (+188%) realized +$5,540 · open −$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +149% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +117% what you keep after slip

Net edge+117%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$584per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$45est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+125.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+144.1%	+120.9%	50%	50%	+129.3%
≤90d	4	+149.2%	+125.5%	50%	50%	+218.0%
all	4	+149.2%	+125.5%	50%	50%	+218.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+125.5%	50%	+218.0%
10%	+103.9%	50%	+187.6%
15%	+84.2%	50%	+159.8%
20%	+66.1%	50%	+134.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +252% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +149% · $-wt +252% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3,082 vs −$332 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.3 per $1 lost it wins $9.3

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$658

Realized+$5,540

Unrealized−$42

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$45

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage50d

Avg bet$584

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$700	$658	−$42 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$308	+$1,198	+388%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 12	$292	−$286	-98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	May 10	$386	−$377	-98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	May 10	$1,216	+$4,967	+408%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$720	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	23¢	$292	16d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$308	16d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	23¢	$386	48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	SELL Sean Strickland	99¢	$6,183	49d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Sean Strickland	19¢	$1,216	49d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.32 · official $658.32 (match) · 7 history records