Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1685…18ec
sports · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$23 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$53
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 7 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$9
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 13¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+78%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No $4 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 55¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 53¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$15 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +111%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $6 +$3 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$13
crypto 27% +$8
sports 24% −$13
tech 16% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 29h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $1 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $1 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $1 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $10 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $10 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No $4 4d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $21 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No $10 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Bill Gates charged by June 30? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.5% +3.6% 59% 59% -22.1%
≤30d 24 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 50% -25.3%
≤90d 24 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 50% -25.3%
all 24 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 50% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 50% -25.3%
10% -19.5% 50% -32.5%
15% -27.3% 46% -39.0%
20% -34.4% 46% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.46 · official $53.46 (match) · 56 history records