Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1686…4387 crypto 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%83W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$39
14 days+$43
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$43
other 9% +$87
politics 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +96.8% +78.1% 100% 100% +78.1%
≤30d 17 +18.4% +7.2% 59% 53% +12.4%
≤90d 150 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 49% -12.9%
all 150 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 49% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 49% -12.9%
10% -29.7% 42% -21.3%
15% -36.5% 31% -28.9%
20% -42.7% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses83 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage59d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 99¢ $60 $104 +$44 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 19 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.16 · official $104.16 (match) · 366 history records