Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1689…0745 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$16 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$36
other 23% +$16
sports 19% −$14
world 13% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -76.7% -78.9% 14% 0% -37.4%
≤30d 31 -59.0% -62.9% 19% 13% -43.2%
≤90d 52 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 37% -10.8%
all 52 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 37% -10.8%
10% -28.7% 35% -19.3%
15% -35.6% 33% -27.1%
20% -41.9% 27% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage77d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 27 $14 −$10 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 27 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 25 $3 +$6 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $8 +$6 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $3 +$3 +104%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $2 +$5 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30? May 16 $10 +$38 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 44¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 66¢ $25 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 57¢ $16 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $8 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $9 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.43 · official $16.43 (match) · 157 history records