Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168a…da29 other 553 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,243 (-3%) realized −$7,443 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate73%392W / 142L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$4,869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 142d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$16,645
sports 4% +$1,762
culture 2% +$1,238
world 1% −$48
politics 0% −$355
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -58.3% -62.3% 22% 22% -99.5%
≤30d 92 +7.2% -3.1% 64% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 388 -4.6% -13.6% 65% 39% -22.6%
all 534 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 44% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 30% -23.1%
15% -22.2% 22% -30.5%
20% -29.9% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$456 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$4,869
Realized−$7,443
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses392 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions23
Markets (closed)534 / 553
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$446
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,181 $1,191 +$10 (+1%)
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 94¢ 95¢ $581 $588 +$7 (+1%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 77¢ 78¢ $494 $497 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $355 $448 +$93 (+26%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 81¢ 80¢ $397 $395 −$2 (-0%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 88¢ $280 $388 +$107 (+38%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 94¢ 96¢ $291 $296 +$5 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 66¢ 66¢ $286 $284 −$2 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 70¢ 100¢ $139 $198 +$59 (+42%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 85¢ 88¢ $117 $121 +$3 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 24¢ $99 $113 +$14 (+14%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $58 $90 +$32 (+55%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 24¢ 32¢ $51 $68 +$17 (+33%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 91¢ 92¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 22¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 86¢ 87¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 53¢ 1¢ $154 $2 −$152 (-98%)
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 63¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luciano Darderi win the 2025 Nordea Open? Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actr Jun 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Hobart International: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 23 $47 −$42 -90%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $1,682 −$1,655 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +138%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $333 +$744 +223%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $825 +$371 +45%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,112 +$48 +4%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $710 +$53 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,467 +$130 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $158 +$123 +78%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $48 +$12 +26%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $56 +$27 +49%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $396 +$1,084 +274%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $790 −$790 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5,273 −$5,187 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $514 −$513 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $119 −$118 -99%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $523 +$57 +11%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $719 +$33 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $817 +$49 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Set 2 Winner: McNally vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $74 +$51 +69%
Set 2 Winner: Medvedev vs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 11 $48 −$20 -42%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 11 $104 −$38 -37%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $19 −$18 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $658 −$652 -99%
Netherlands vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $189 +$53 +28%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,028 −$444 -43%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $148 +$16 +11%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3,486 +$709 +20%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $218 +$17 +8%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,496 +$296 +20%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4,136 +$951 +23%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $20 +$20 +98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6,155 +$8,388 +136%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $747 +$100 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 66¢ $289 2h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 63¢ $2 3h
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 86¢ $16 9h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 77¢ $154 26h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 77¢ $3 26h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $101 27h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 77¢ $17 28h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $1,147 30h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $33 31h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 77¢ $266 32h
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 85¢ $118 33h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 91¢ $57 34h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $214 44h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $147 44h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $6 44h
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 94¢ $583 47h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 77¢ $55 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 80¢ $66 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $6 2d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri BUY No 94¢ $291 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 19¢ $15 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 46¢ $1,682 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 81¢ $310 3d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $2 4d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $35 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $73 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 82¢ $23 5d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $40 5d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY No 24¢ $52 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,868.57 · official $4,849.47 (match) · 3500 history records