Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168b…be56 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$20
politics 27% −$13
sports 8% −$3
economics 6% −$2
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% $0
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 131 -1.9% -11.3% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage127d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $372 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $304 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $259 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $904 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $260 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $253 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $317 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $328 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $323 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $327 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 6h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 12h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 12h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 23h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $269 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $277 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $277 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $304 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $304 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 389 history records