Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168f…72bb crypto 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate75%299W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$44
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$7
politics 16% −$3
sports 13% −$22
other 11% −$30
world 6% −$10
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 50 -14.9% -23.0% 62% 28% -20.6%
≤90d 201 -3.7% -12.9% 88% 8% -11.6%
all 399 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.4%
10% -20.2% 3% -19.0%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses299 / 100
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)399 / 402
History coverage144d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 29¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $9 +$3 +36%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +38%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $9 +$5 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $8 +$15 +180%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 +$6 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +45%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $6 +$4 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 03 $2 +$1 +24%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $13 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 29¢ $5 11m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 78¢ $6 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 73¢ $9 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $6 38h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $5 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $10 5d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $6 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 7d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $6 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $6 7d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $10 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $8 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 83¢ $5 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $5 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $6 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8 9d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 83¢ $5 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $7 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.50 · official $25.50 (match) · 1679 history records