Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x168f…9e00
other · 1155 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$23,353 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,734 · open −$608
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,185
Realized−$3,734
Unrealized−$608
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses24 / 1110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions96
Markets (closed)1134 / 1155
History coverage6d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day578.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 96 History 1134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,579
7 days−$3,734
14 days−$3,734
30 days−$3,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 99¢ 94¢ $395 $377 −$18 (-5%)
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 62¢ $447 $357 −$90 (-20%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $367 $352 −$15 (-4%)
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 2% and 3%? No 99¢ 100¢ $282 $286 +$4 (+1%)
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? No 76¢ 79¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 95¢ 80¢ $196 $165 −$31 (-16%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 96¢ 86¢ $180 $162 −$18 (-10%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $203 $158 −$45 (-22%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 73¢ $163 $148 −$15 (-9%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? No 39¢ 32¢ $141 $114 −$27 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 33¢ 26¢ $111 $90 −$22 (-20%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 24¢ $156 $87 −$69 (-44%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 69¢ $87 $70 −$17 (-19%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $88 $65 −$22 (-26%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bill Reid win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 96¢ 89¢ $48 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $63 $41 −$22 (-34%)
Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 44¢ $53 $25 −$28 (-52%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-53%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 79¢ 74¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31? No 70¢ 41¢ $34 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 88¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth Jun 14 $282 +$4 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +15%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -202%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 14 $0 $0 -10%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -256%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 14 $558 −$559 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Jun 14 $0 −$15 -85102%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May? Jun 14 $5 −$20 -410%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parl Jun 14 $0 −$1 -16828%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$13 -152%
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 14 $0 $0 -335%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 14 $0 −$8 -13042%
Will Michael McGuire be the Republican nominee for NJ-03? Jun 14 $10 −$11 -105%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law i Jun 14 $4 −$6 -154%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Montpellier HSC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 14 $0 $0 -729%
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026 Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Pedro Antonio Casas advance from the CA-38 primary election? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $5 −$6 -120%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $6.0B i Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -933%
Will the Patek Index hit $104,000 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30? Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? Jun 14 $32 −$25 -78%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -62%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 14 $368 −$23 -6%
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 14 $16 −$5 -33%
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $1 $0 -56%
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $260 −$11 -4%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $552 −$12 -2%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 14 $229 −$21 -9%
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$1,648
world 21% −$521
politics 19% −$609
tech 6% −$114
sports 6% −$181
finance 1% −$34
economics 1% −$22
crypto 1% +$67
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $111 15m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $114 15m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 18m
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 32m
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? SELL No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $44 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $68 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $427 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $552 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $69 2h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1134 -5.4% -14.4% 2% 1% -13.8%
≤30d 1134 -5.4% -14.4% 2% 1% -13.8%
≤90d 1134 -5.4% -14.4% 2% 1% -13.8%
all 1134 -5.4% -14.4% 2% 1% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover578.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 1% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 1% -22.1%
15% -30.1% 1% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,185.28 · official $3,179.66 (match) · 3500 history records