Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1694…e6c8 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%40W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$36
weather 18% +$1
world 15% −$16
finance 7% $0
other 6% $0
tech 2% +$3
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 3% -10.3%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 9% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -11.8%
10% -18.1% 9% -20.3%
15% -26.0% 7% -28.0%
20% -33.3% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses40 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage121d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 7? Jun 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 23? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 18-24? May 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 8? May 10 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 3? May 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 2? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? May 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? May 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 26? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 24? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 23? Apr 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? Apr 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 15? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 17? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $82 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 5? Apr 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 4? Apr 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 29 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 15? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 04 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $88 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $116 23d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $27 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 29d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 36d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $105 36d
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $12 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 45d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 47d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 47d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 47d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 47d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 48d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 48d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 100¢ $12 50d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $21 50d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 55d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 56d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $71 56d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 62d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 63d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $70 65d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 23? BUY No 99¢ $12 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $71 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.97 · official $157.97 (match) · 146 history records