Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x1694…8bad crypto 1258 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,190 (-45%) realized −$3,188 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%275W / 1321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$921
7 days−$1,174
14 days−$1,181
30 days−$1,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$536
world 23% −$163
other 21% −$480
politics 9% −$197
finance 5% −$87
tech 4% −$98
sports 3% −$54
culture 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 -82.3% -84.0% 2% 1% -70.3%
≤30d 480 -68.8% -71.8% 4% 3% -49.8%
≤90d 1596 -52.5% -57.0% 17% 14% -40.0%
all 1596 -52.5% -57.0% 17% 14% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.0% 14% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -61.1% 13% -45.7%
15% -64.9% 11% -51.0%
20% -68.3% 10% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$3,188
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses275 / 1321
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1596 / 1258
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -9%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 1h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 11h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $8 12h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $1 12h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $1 12h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 6¢ $1 12h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $0 12h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $31 12h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 17h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 17h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 17h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 17h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 17h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $120 17h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S SELL Yes 33¢ $2 32h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S BUY Yes 32¢ $2 32h
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $2 33h
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $2 33h
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliame SELL Yes 25¢ $1 34h
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliame SELL Yes 26¢ $25 34h
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliame BUY Yes 26¢ $26 34h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? SELL No 24¢ $12 40h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? BUY No 24¢ $12 40h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 42h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 42h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 2d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $21.60 (match) · 3500 history records