Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1695…324c other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,109 (+13%) realized +$5,382 · open −$1,273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%43W / 94L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,805
7 days+$1,186
14 days+$1,355
30 days+$2,399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$914
sports 28% +$1,131
finance 16% +$2,860
world 5% +$394
crypto 1% −$78
politics 0% +$109
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +16.1% +5.1% 36% 35% -2.0%
≤30d 74 +22.1% +10.5% 41% 39% +2.6%
≤90d 100 +23.4% +11.6% 35% 34% +4.4%
all 137 +6.1% -4.0% 31% 31% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 31% +7.6%
10% -13.2% 28% -2.7%
15% -21.6% 26% -12.1%
20% -29.3% 26% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$101 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1,897
Realized+$5,382
Unrealized−$1,273
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses43 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions17
Markets (closed)137 / 154
History coverage161d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ 50¢ $269 $505 +$236 (+87%)
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 38¢ $420 $380 −$40 (-10%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 25¢ $355 $250 −$105 (-30%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 33¢ $266 $248 −$19 (-7%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 22¢ $410 $225 −$185 (-45%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $212 $120 −$92 (-43%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $171 $104 −$67 (-39%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $55 $20 −$35 (-64%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $154 $14 −$140 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $476 $11 −$465 (-98%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $5 −$14 (-72%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Yes 57¢ 20¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-64%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists Yes 17¢ 1¢ $85 $3 −$82 (-97%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $99 $2 −$97 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $2 −$78 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $447 −$168 -38%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $222 −$202 -91%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $685 +$833 +122%
Igor Matanović: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $305 +$446 +146%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $408 −$403 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $229 +$279 +122%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $213 −$210 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $113 −$38 -34%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $155 +$372 +239%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $455 +$258 +57%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$221 +216%
Aymen Hussein: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $169 +$244 +144%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $244 +$256 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 +$177 +785%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$413 +4015%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $220 +$275 +125%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $175 +$300 +172%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$126 +124%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $307 −$146 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $738 +$419 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $617 −$610 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $458 +$614 +134%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $201 +$200 +100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $466 +$240 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $183 1h
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $271 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $178 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $275 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $417 1h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $427 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 61¢ $447 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $13 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $16 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $0 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $35 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $17 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 3h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $87 3h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $222 3h
Igor Matanović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Igor Matanović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $53 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $562 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $165 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.96 · official $1,911.96 (match) · 703 history records