Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x1695…2842 tech 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable tech specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,497 (-10%) realized −$15,663 · open +$8,166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,295per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$27,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 81% +$4,048
world 14% −$3,504
other 4% −$31
sports 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -81.2% -83.0% 0% 0% -83.0%
≤30d 4 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -87.0%
≤90d 9 -21.6% -29.0% 33% 22% -43.2%
all 13 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 46% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 46% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -30.0%
15% -27.8% 31% -36.8%
20% -34.9% 15% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,023 vs −$2,462 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$27,761
Realized−$15,663
Unrealized+$8,166
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage121d
Avg bet$4,295
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 55¢ 73¢ $11,562 $15,442 +$3,880 (+34%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 48¢ 74¢ $8,033 $12,319 +$4,286 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $182 −$148 -81%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $180 +$326 +181%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $511 −$395 -77%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4,310 −$4,223 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 28 $2,926 −$31 -1%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 24 $6,578 −$6,473 -98%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $2,610 +$315 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $10,082 −$3,504 -35%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $9,784 +$298 +3%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $100 +$43 +43%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 05 $7,039 +$2,692 +38%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 04 $4,664 +$2,375 +51%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $3,548 +$1,115 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $91 44m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,675 44m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 44m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 44m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,378 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $11,771 2h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4,012 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 57¢ $520 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay w BUY 17¢ $10 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $506 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $182 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $87 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $0 11d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $115 19d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $79 25d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $201 25d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 25d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $187 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $6 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $15 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 25d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $216 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,760.72 · official $27,760.72 (match) · 174 history records