Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x1695…051a world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$2
world 29% +$6
sports 15% +$4
politics 12% −$4
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 6% -8.6%
all 47 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage382d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $32 +$4 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 09 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $178 −$2 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Trump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 8 at 5 PM ET? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $2 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $39 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $36 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.76 · official $38.76 (match) · 129 history records