Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1698…4f46 sports 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-8%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%116W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day67.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$5
world 30% +$20
other 16% −$12
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% −$10
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 39% -15.9%
≤30d 96 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 34% -14.4%
≤90d 259 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 27% -10.4%
all 259 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 27% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 17% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 12% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses116 / 143
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions33
Markets (closed)259 / 284
History coverage50d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 68¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 20¢ 95¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+376%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+232%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 26¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+197%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 82¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 65¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? No 76¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 39¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 78¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $9 −$3 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $4 +$10 +248%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +93%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -90%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$5 +50%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $1 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $1 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $0 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 97¢ $0 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 97¢ $0 45m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 49m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $1 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 59m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.97 · official $67.45 (match) · 3500 history records