Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1699…4b8d
other · 19 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$24 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 4 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44 $0 +1%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% +$10
sports 4% +$12
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 1h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 47h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $39 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 3d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1 3d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 33% +8.9%
≤30d 15 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 33% +8.9%
≤90d 15 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 33% +8.9%
all 15 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 33% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 33% +8.9%
10% +2.8% 33% -1.5%
15% -7.1% 33% -11.1%
20% -16.2% 33% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.88 · official $16.88 (match) · 45 history records