Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1699…8c66 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,187 (-25%) realized −$1,200 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,535
sports 6% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -29.5% -36.2% 40% 40% -17.5%
≤90d 27 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -36.7%
all 27 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 33% -36.7%
10% -38.1% 33% -42.8%
15% -44.1% 33% -48.3%
20% -49.6% 30% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$130 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$1,200
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage56d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Under 73¢ 92¢ $111 $139 +$28 (+25%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $144 +$139 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $158 −$100 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 30 $109 −$54 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $53 +$30 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $33 +$49 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 22 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 03 $105 −$65 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 03 $418 −$204 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 03 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 03 $104 +$102 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 03 $808 −$26 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 03 $208 −$184 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 03 $207 +$209 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 03 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 03 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 03 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $313 −$265 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $204 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 03 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 03 $206 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 03 $80 −$68 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $112 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 54¢ $101 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $43 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $44 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $54 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $136 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $82 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $82 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $40 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.24 · official $154.24 (match) · 95 history records