Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x169c…75db other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$131
sports 46% +$112
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
≤90d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
all 14 -40.9% -46.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 29% -12.4%
10% -51.6% 21% -20.8%
15% -56.3% 21% -28.4%
20% -60.6% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$22 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 −$20 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $39 −$25 -65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$45 +112%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $71 +$88 +123%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$51 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 32m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 58m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $110 9h
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $86 12h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $41 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $20 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $56 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $159 23h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $71 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 29h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $4 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $59 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records