Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x169e…de26 crypto 905 markets active 2h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 338d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,285 (-9%) realized −$3,272 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%593W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$104
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$357
sports 30% −$962
other 15% +$413
politics 3% −$123
world 3% −$145
culture 1% −$99
economics 0% +$23
tech 0% −$40
finance 0% −$18
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.3% -5.7% 62% 62% +0.5%
≤30d 17 -1.9% -11.2% 59% 59% -5.2%
≤90d 94 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 62% -1.2%
all 903 -5.3% -14.3% 66% 56% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 56% -12.8%
10% -22.5% 37% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 20% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$3,272
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses593 / 310
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)903 / 905
History coverage338d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 71¢ 72¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $39 −$39 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $22 −$22 -99%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $74 +$14 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $180 +$94 +52%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $17 +$10 +58%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $56 +$96 +172%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $56 +$38 +67%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 26 $78 +$34 +44%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$27 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $32 +$18 +57%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $26 −$26 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $22 +$5 +21%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 25 $17 −$17 -99%
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $48 +$49 +101%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $198 −$151 -76%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner May 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 01 $37 −$35 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 01 $21 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 01 $21 +$11 +51%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Apr 30 $15 −$6 -40%
Shymkent 2: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Apr 30 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 30 $8 +$4 +55%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Apr 30 $18 +$4 +24%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $11 +$8 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? Apr 29 $17 +$4 +27%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Apr 29 $18 −$15 -81%
LoL: LUA Gaming vs Barça eSports (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 29 $17 +$3 +17%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $36 −$30 -83%
LoL: LUA Gaming vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $19 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Apr 29 $22 +$13 +56%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $8 +$3 +33%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $92 +$48 +52%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $88 +$49 +55%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $66 +$27 +42%
Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $124 −$109 -88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $37 +$24 +65%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $45 +$23 +52%
Southampton FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $6 −$6 -98%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Apr 28 $57 +$25 +44%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $55 +$20 +38%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $90 +$47 +53%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $130 +$57 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 71¢ $76 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 58¢ $39 9h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 12h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $5 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $9 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $171 14h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $69 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $7 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $10 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $56 37h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $56 37h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $78 40h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $51 2d
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Martin Krumich 61¢ $26 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Claire Liu 63¢ $32 2d
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) BUY Quinn 72¢ $17 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 82¢ $22 2d
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim BUY Geun Jun Kim 81¢ $25 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $24 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $24 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 10¢ $47 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $198 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $17 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $39 7d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 55d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 55d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up $2 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.71 · official $75.71 (match) · 3500 history records