Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16a3…e1aa world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%17W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$10
politics 18% $0
other 17% $0
sports 15% −$15
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 30 -1.0% -10.5% 27% 3% -10.5%
≤90d 80 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 2% -9.9%
all 81 -2.4% -11.7% 21% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses17 / 64
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage491d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $66 +$6 +10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 −$6 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $75 −$12 -16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $78 +$3 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $44 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $31 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $123 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $27 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $28 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 25h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $5 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $21 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $14 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.00 (match) · 359 history records