Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16a3…3076 politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$18
other 41% −$15
sports 8% +$21
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 134 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage115d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $313 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 10 $457 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $446 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $441 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 16h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 25h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 9d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $42 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 391 history records