Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16a4…66ad sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,067 (-45%) realized −$2,604 · open −$463
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$977
crypto 35% +$1,055
other 26% −$984
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤30d 8 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤90d 8 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 38% -16.1%
all 8 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 38% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 38% -16.1%
10% -37.1% 38% -24.1%
15% -43.2% 38% -31.5%
20% -48.7% 38% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$869 vs −$610 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$2,604
Unrealized−$463
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 40¢ 18¢ $301 $136 −$165 (-55%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,025 +$1,353 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $510 +$989 +194%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $488 +$266 +54%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,001 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 40¢ $306 29m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,378 35m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 99¢ $1,500 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $754 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 64¢ $488 44m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $510 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $307 22h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $1,016 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.71 · official $137.71 (match) · 15 history records