trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $42 | $42 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $19 | −$1 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $26 | +$1 | +4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $76 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $87 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 22 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 21 | $22 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 03 | $271 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 03 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $270 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 01 | $270 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 31 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 31 | $298 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 30 | $271 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Dec 10 | $3 | +$3 | +75% |
| UC San Diego vs. CSU Bakersfield | Feb 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Mungo vs. MINH | Feb 05 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 24? | Feb 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Jan 24 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? | Jan 09 | $2 | +$6 | +376% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 17% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 17% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 28% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 29% | 8% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.1% | 8% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -9.7% | 8% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -18.4% | 8% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -26.4% | 8% | -33.6% |