Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x16ad…b33b sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,169 (-4%) realized −$1,410 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 44L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,501
sports 43% +$60
crypto 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -57.9% -61.9% 14% 14% -6.8%
≤90d 61 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 25% -14.1%
all 66 -5.2% -14.2% 33% 23% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 23% -14.0%
10% -22.4% 21% -22.3%
15% -29.9% 21% -29.8%
20% -36.8% 15% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8.881416178796085% → late -1.4319254609417014% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$66 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,410
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage100d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-50%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery Menery 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $30 −$3 -11%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $96 −$6 -6%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 23 $11 −$10 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 22 $205 −$13 -7%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $2,886 −$614 -21%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $101 −$8 -8%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $51 +$58 +114%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $31 +$119 +388%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,034 −$66 -3%
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? May 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,964 −$1,010 -51%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$1 -11%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2,301 +$42 +2%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$1 -6%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,544 −$393 -26%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $197 −$60 -30%
Huzhou: Xiyu Wang vs Polona Hercog May 01 $2 $0 -5%
Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? May 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? May 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? May 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $3 $0 -7%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $617 +$290 +47%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Will CF Montréal vs. New York City FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $5 $0 -6%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $1,623 +$15 +1%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $3,095 +$129 +4%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $23 +$9 +41%
Will CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw? Apr 18 $8 $0 -4%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +48%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 16 $220 +$12 +5%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,067 +$201 +19%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 11 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? Apr 10 $15 −$3 -21%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $45 −$1 -2%
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 08 $55 +$47 +86%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Apr 08 $60 +$26 +43%
Lightning vs. Senators Apr 08 $64 +$50 +78%
Nets vs. Lakers Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 07 $100 +$52 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 1¢ $1 24m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 97¢ $46 25m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $25 41m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $12 42m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $15 51m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 42¢ $8 51m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $7 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $8 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 46¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 35¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 65¢ $6 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 5¢ $1 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 4¢ $0 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 8¢ $1 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $10 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 71¢ $8 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ $4 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $5 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 63¢ $4 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 70¢ $4 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 31¢ $2 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $3 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $2 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $2 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $2 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 843 history records