Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16ad…8bec politics 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$6
politics 26% −$3
other 21% −$4
culture 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 194 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 188
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage171d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $318 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $192 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $284 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $122 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $156 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $85 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 24d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $27 24d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $37 38d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $37 38d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $30 121d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $30 121d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 121d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 121d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $34 121d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $34 121d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $33 121d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 121d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 121d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 121d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 121d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 121d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $38 121d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $38 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $34 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $34 121d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $6 121d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $27 121d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $6 121d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $9 121d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.17 · official $26.17 (match) · 781 history records