Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16ae…1557 crypto 52 markets active 5h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-6%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$331
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 46% -23.5%
≤30d 52 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 46% -23.5%
≤90d 52 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 46% -23.5%
all 52 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 46% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 46% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 31% -30.9%
15% -37.3% 25% -37.5%
20% -43.5% 19% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$24 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$21 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$72 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$18 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$56 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $85 +$65 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$41 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $74 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$7 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$4 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $148 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $75 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $87 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $73 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $42 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $28 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records