Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x16af…12a5 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$587 (+2%) realized +$608 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%60W / 31L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$34
14 days+$1,175
30 days+$1,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$310
politics 6% +$449
other 4% +$10
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.8% -16.5% 67% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 36 +1.7% -7.9% 56% 22% -2.9%
≤90d 73 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 40% -7.6%
all 91 +18.7% +7.4% 66% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 41% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.8% 30% -16.4%
15% -12.2% 21% -24.5%
20% -20.8% 14% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$59 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized+$608
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses60 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)91 / 103
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$364
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $858 $862 +$4 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 35¢ 26¢ $69 $52 −$17 (-25%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 85¢ 91¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-56%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+90%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Partido Novo (NOVO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Jun 22 $175 +$22 +13%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 22 $195 +$19 +10%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $175 +$9 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$15 -26%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $7 −$5 -65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 14 $1,037 +$84 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 14 $93 −$16 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $696 +$456 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $517 +$45 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,525 +$411 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $189 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $146 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $577 +$173 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $99 −$35 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $395 +$19 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $73 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $59 −$6 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 03 $166 −$90 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $577 +$112 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 01 $71 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 01 $126 −$39 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,423 +$29 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $59 +$27 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $879 +$28 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $2,246 +$153 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $82 −$6 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 25 $12 +$15 +125%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3,968 −$69 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $240 −$7 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $627 −$70 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $173 −$16 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $204 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $9,358 −$256 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $31 +$74 +241%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $80 +$16 +20%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin May 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 06 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $57 +$81 +142%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 05 $5,860 −$965 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? May 05 $50 −$12 -25%
Will Trump say "Iran" during healthcare event? Apr 24 $13 +$5 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,059 −$70 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $41 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $11 3h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $10 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $1 3h
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? SELL No 91¢ $16 4h
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? SELL No 93¢ $5 4h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $23 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 4h
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL No 99¢ $195 4h
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? SELL No 91¢ $21 16h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 83¢ $8 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 87¢ $9 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $42 4d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL No 89¢ $19 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 83¢ $41 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 83¢ $40 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $42 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 56¢ $28 4d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY No 90¢ $28 4d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY No 90¢ $62 4d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.54 · official $966.58 (match) · 3500 history records