Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16b2…aa5a other 803 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$122,252 (+29%) realized +$122,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%558W / 245L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day86.5pace
Fees−$1,260est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$28,875
sports 24% +$798
world 1% −$147
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +5.2% -4.8% 54% 31% -5.1%
≤30d 534 +14.8% +3.9% 69% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 803 +15.5% +4.5% 69% 44% -3.1%
all 803 +15.5% +4.5% 69% 44% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 44% -3.1%
10% -5.5% 24% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -14.7% 15% -20.9%
20% -23.0% 10% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$116 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses558 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,260
Open positions0
Markets (closed)803 / 803
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$521
Trades / day86.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 803 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18,631 +$1,777 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$23 +185%
Will UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +80%
Will RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11,700 −$368 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $79 −$20 -25%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,606 −$1,408 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $356 +$227 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $748 +$647 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,084 +$2,416 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,511 +$249 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $214 −$142 -66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,262 +$65 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,784 −$583 -12%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $641 +$112 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8,224 +$2,271 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $343 +$45 +13%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $503 +$63 +12%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $504 −$480 -95%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $683 −$149 -22%
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Aasane Fotball win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,035 +$568 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,463 +$251 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,334 +$106 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,962 +$448 +8%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 +$6 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $280 −$45 -16%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $91 −$23 -25%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $145 −$49 -34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,335 −$13 -1%
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $157 +$11 +7%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 +$10 +15%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $141 +$36 +25%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $504 −$94 -19%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $217 +$36 +17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,464 +$137 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $883 +$17 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $670 +$50 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2,531 +$1,508 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $5,658 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 36¢ $2,710 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 36¢ $63 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 32¢ $8,062 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $201 2h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $36 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,647 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $60 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $3,000 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $318 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $600 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $178 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $890 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $306 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records