Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16b7…93f2
crypto · 156 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$116 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$118 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses49 / 105
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -68%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -56%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +206%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +218%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $13 −$11 -89%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 29 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $10 −$4 -39%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $14 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +59%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +48%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +46%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 27 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $28 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$48
sports 31% −$54
other 10% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 9m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 0¢ $0 20m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 8¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $15 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 0¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 27¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 12¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 5¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -43.4% -48.8% 24% 24% -35.0%
≤30d 154 -14.8% -22.9% 32% 27% -28.2%
≤90d 154 -14.8% -22.9% 32% 27% -28.2%
all 154 -14.8% -22.9% 32% 27% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 27% -28.2%
10% -30.3% 23% -35.0%
15% -37.0% 20% -41.3%
20% -43.2% 16% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.79 · official $4.87 · 350 history records