Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16b8…3773 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1
politics 22% −$1
world 11% −$2
sports 11% $0
crypto 10% $0
economics 5% $0
weather 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 21 -26.6% -33.6% 14% 0% -11.3%
all 27 -20.3% -27.9% 19% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -34.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -41.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -46.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage98d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 23? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 14? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the Apr 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Julio César Tórrez win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per Apr 19 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Ostapenko vs. Ruse: Match O/U 23.5 Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$1 -88%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $30 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 23 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? BUY No 97¢ $25 33d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 23? BUY Yes $2 35d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 14? BUY Yes $1 45d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec SELL No 100¢ $13 54d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec SELL No 100¢ $3 54d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec SELL No 100¢ $1 54d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec SELL No 100¢ $11 54d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $28 64d
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the SELL Yes $0 70d
Will Julio César Tórrez win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election BUY Yes $1 70d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per SELL No 100¢ $31 70d
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the BUY Yes $2 73d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per BUY No 100¢ $31 78d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 79d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 80d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? SELL Yes $0 81d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? SELL Yes $0 81d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? SELL Yes $0 82d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? BUY Yes $1 85d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes $2 91d
Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026? SELL Yes $0 92d
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes $2 94d
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026? SELL Yes $2 95d
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026? BUY Yes $2 96d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 96d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 97d
Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026? BUY Yes $2 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.21 · official $25.21 (match) · 68 history records