Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16b9…5492 other 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$43
sports 24% −$23
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$7
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% $0
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage135d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $833 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $307 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $308 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $357 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $857 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $397 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $317 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 5h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 10h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 12h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 24h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 25h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 27h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 29h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 29h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 37h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 1405 history records