Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16bf…07e5 sports 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$284 (+5%) realized +$308 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%209W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$157
other 25% +$241
weather 10% −$56
politics 4% −$61
crypto 3% −$25
finance 3% −$41
world 3% −$15
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -22.2%
≤30d 160 -27.1% -34.0% 44% 36% -7.9%
≤90d 415 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 46% -6.1%
all 415 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 46% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 46% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -15.0%
15% -30.1% 33% -23.3%
20% -36.9% 29% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses209 / 206
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)415 / 418
History coverage36d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $98 $78 −$19 (-20%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 48¢ $56 $52 −$4 (-7%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 69¢ 67¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 +$3 +97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $50 −$4 -8%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +89%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $543 +$225 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -79%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 11 $7 −$4 -52%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -54%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $200 +$69 +34%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $177 +$20 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 48¢ $51 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $113 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $46 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $43 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $57 6h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 14d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $4 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $2 15d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $16 15d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $10 15d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 58¢ $10 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? SELL No 0¢ $0 15d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 100¢ $3 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $2 15d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 99¢ $7 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $534 15d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 15d
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 3¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.95 · official $158.95 (match) · 1458 history records