Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x16c2…7382 crypto 931 markets active 3h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$198 (-7%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%472W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$91
other 16% −$236
sports 10% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 56% -10.4%
≤30d 907 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 918 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 51% -12.7%
all 931 -4.9% -14.0% 51% 51% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 51% -16.9%
10% -22.2% 51% -24.8%
15% -29.7% 50% -32.1%
20% -36.6% 49% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses472 / 459
Open positions0
Markets (closed)931 / 931
History coverage446d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 931 Trades
no open positions (429 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +83%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1494 history records