Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16c7…22cd
weather · 1239 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 1239
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1125.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? No 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 4? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? No 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? No 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? No 59¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? No 20¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? No 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Yes 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? No 39¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or higher on May 24? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 4? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or higher on May 24? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $371 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% $0
other 10% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $9 7m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 32¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $14 13m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $4 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $29 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $13 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 16m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $9 28m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 11¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $3 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +29.8% +17.4% 69% 69% +13.5%
≤30d 13 +29.8% +17.4% 69% 69% +13.5%
≤90d 13 +29.8% +17.4% 69% 69% +13.5%
all 13 +29.8% +17.4% 69% 69% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.4% 69% +13.5%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 62% +2.6%
15% -4.1% 46% -7.3%
20% -13.5% 23% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.97 · official $10.95 · 3500 history records