Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16c7…0cc9 world 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 50% -31.1%
≤30d 2 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 50% -31.1%
≤90d 2 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 50% -31.1%
all 2 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 50% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 50% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 50% -37.7%
15% -43.7% 50% -43.7%
20% -49.2% 50% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 46¢ $1 10m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 47¢ $1 10m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 26m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 32m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 36m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 40m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.15 · official $29.53 (match) · 33 history records