Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16c7…3931
sports · 81 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$41,735 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,647 · open +$8,856
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$318,564
Realized+$25,647
Unrealized+$8,856
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$642
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 81
Avg bet$7,018
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 9 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6,163
30 days+$20,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $57,442 $78,535 +$21,093 (+37%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $64,852 $72,545 +$7,693 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $47,780 $61,262 +$13,482 (+28%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $37,889 $42,830 +$4,941 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $65,118 $33,094 −$32,025 (-49%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $20,939 $18,184 −$2,755 (-13%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $8,531 $6,296 −$2,235 (-26%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6,826 $5,808 −$1,017 (-15%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $331 $10 −$321 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $7,803 +$2,752 +35%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,030 +$3,408 +168%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 28 $6,945 +$3,252 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 26 $4,251 +$3,540 +83%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 23 $18,483 +$3,504 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $6,000 +$2,564 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 18 $14,083 +$1,459 +10%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 10 $3,204 +$796 +25%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 10 $2,340 −$540 -23%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28? May 10 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? May 10 $576 −$576 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $2,058 −$2,058 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? May 10 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $983 −$983 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) May 10 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? May 10 $950 −$950 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 10 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $1,305 −$1,305 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 10 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 10 $1,703 −$1,703 -100%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) May 10 $625 −$625 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Apr 22 $20,725 +$3,264 +16%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Apr 19 $2,128 +$435 +20%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $2,600 +$1,393 +54%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $4,080 −$206 -5%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $1,081 +$2,087 +193%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $2,083 +$1,463 +70%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $1,742 +$858 +49%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Mar 18 $1,500 +$500 +33%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $2,160 +$1,840 +85%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Mar 16 $1,800 −$53 -3%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $1,500 +$858 +57%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 08 $3,660 +$2,340 +64%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 05 $2,850 +$2,150 +75%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $2,350 +$2,650 +113%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1,840 +$1,840 +100%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $2,530 +$2,470 +98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 01 $5,719 +$2,750 +48%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $1,620 −$256 -16%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $960 −$388 -40%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 28 $444 −$444 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 79% +$23,728
sports 18% +$4,613
other 3% +$6,162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $557 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $164 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $4,328 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $180 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $779 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $3,077 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $675 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $159 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $39 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $17,474 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 44¢ $4,987 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,297 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 87¢ $26,556 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 14¢ $4,152 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 80¢ $62,688 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $11,301 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 46¢ $153 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +57.4% +42.4% 100% 88% +21.6%
≤90d 40 -21.7% -29.2% 45% 42% -5.7%
all 72 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 46% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 46% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -6.9%
15% -23.0% 38% -15.9%
20% -30.5% 32% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318,564.47 · official $318,564.47 (match) · 1592 history records