Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x16ca…24bd other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+10%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 25% -0.6%
≤30d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 25% -0.6%
≤90d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 25% -0.6%
all 4 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 25% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 25% -0.6%
10% -10.1% 0% -10.1%
15% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
20% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 94¢ $27 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 86¢ $25 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $27 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $27 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records