Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x16d1…f3e6 politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$79 (+7%) realized +$102 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.3% +44.1% 100% 100% +33.8%
≤30d 2 +59.3% +44.1% 100% 100% +33.8%
≤90d 2 +59.3% +44.1% 100% 100% +33.8%
all 2 +59.3% +44.1% 100% 100% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.1% 100% +33.8%
10% +30.4% 100% +21.0%
15% +17.8% 50% +9.3%
20% +6.2% 50% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage16d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $283 $285 +$2 (+1%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $292 $279 −$14 (-5%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $246 $244 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $162 $152 −$10 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $65 +$59 +92%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $135 +$36 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? BUY Yes 93¢ $284 1h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 82¢ $248 1h
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? BUY Yes 56¢ $165 1h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 75¢ $295 35h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 3d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 15d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 78¢ $135 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.05 · official $960.08 (match) · 8 history records