Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16d5…7c57 crypto 1643 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+0%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%1459W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$56
14 days−$1,012
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -3.7% -12.9% 86% 11% -14.8%
≤30d 1254 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 19% -10.6%
≤90d 1643 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 19% -10.0%
all 1643 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 19% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 19% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 6% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$37 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1459 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1643 / 1643
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1643 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records